Bøger i Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems serien

Uncertainties and changes are pervasive characteristics of modern systems involving interactions between humans, economics, nature and technology. These systems are often too complex to allow for precise evaluations and, as a result, the lack of proper management (control) may create significant risks. In order to develop robust strategies we need approaches which explic­ itly deal with uncertainties, risks and changing conditions. One rather general approach is to characterize (explicitly or implicitly) uncertainties by objec­ tive or subjective probabilities (measures of confidence or belief). This leads us to stochastic optimization problems which can rarely be solved by using the standard deterministic optimization and optimal control methods. In the stochastic optimization the accent is on problems with a large number of deci­ sion and random variables, and consequently the focus ofattention is directed to efficient solution procedures rather than to (analytical) closed-form solu­ tions. Objective and constraint functions of dynamic stochastic optimization problems have the form of multidimensional integrals of rather involved in­ that may have a nonsmooth and even discontinuous character - the tegrands typical situation for "hit-or-miss" type of decision making problems involving irreversibility ofdecisions or/and abrupt changes ofthe system. In general, the exact evaluation of such functions (as is assumed in the standard optimization and control theory) is practically impossible. Also, the problem does not often possess the separability properties that allow to derive the standard in control theory recursive (Bellman) equations.

In logistics systems, the issue of planning stability has attracted increased attention and interest in recent years. The propagation of adjustments in planning systems first acquired wide attention when MRP systems were employed as standard planning tools for material coordination.

Over more than two centuries the development of economic theory has created a wide array of different theories, concepts and results. We have a collection of separate theories such as the Marxian economics, the Keynesian economics, the general equilibrium theory, and the neoclassical growth theory.

This literature shows that learning is a possible mechanism to acquire the necessary level of information that agents are assumed to possess in a rational expectations equilibrium and hence there is a clear link between rational expectations theory and the 2 theory of learning.

The contributions to this volume are divided into four parts: Stochastic Theor~ (2 articles), P~sics (6 articles), Biolo~ (4 articles) and Operations Research (12 articles).

This monograph contains some ofthe papers presented at a UK-Japanese Workshop on Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing held at Churchill College, Cambridge on July 20 and 21st 1995, sponsored jointly by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council and the British Council.

The most important results are that the equilibrium prices are independent of the number of traders and are always very close to - if not inside - the range of competitive prices. The latter can be evaluated as game theoretic support for the convergence of prices to the competitive price.

Nonlinear Labor Market Dynamics discusses adjustment processes in labor markets. It is shown that even textbook-like-models of the labor market can generate long lasting adjustment processes, local instabilities, and chaotic movements, once nonlinear relationships and widely accepted adjustment rules are introduced.

Increasing customer requirements, product variety, and market competition demand for service and cost improvements by model based inventory control in supply chains. Models for several types of problems and network structures are presented and analyzed to develop efficient optimization algorithms and heuristics.

Moving from a single decision maker (the consideration of Lecture Notes 164 and 186) to a multiple decision maker setting introduces a great deal of complexity into the analysis. Group decision making under multiple criteria includes such diverse and interconnected fields as preference analysis.

Organization design has been discussed by many authors in management and organization theory.

Provides an overview of the microeconometric evaluation methods for evaluation of labour market and other public policies. This book focuses on the propensity score matching method and gives guidance for its implementation. It uses this method to evaluate the employment effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany.

The management of these goods flows opposite to the traditional supply chain flows is addressed in the recently emerged field of Reverse Logistics. Moreover, differences between Reverse Logistics and more traditional logistics contexts are highlighted.

This volume contains a selection of refereed papers presented at the 6th International Symposium on Generalized Convexity/Monotonicity, and aims to review the latest developments in this interdisciplinary field.

The monograph gives a theoretical explanation of observed cooperative behavior in common pool situations.

In traditional economics models of perfect competition agent's interactions are all mediated through the market. This book contains a selection of papers presented at the 6th Workshop on Economics with Heterogenous Interacting Agents (WEHIA).

This is a consideration of developments in research on chaotic dynamics in the field of economic growth and dynamic macroeconomic models. It includes coverage of: heterogeneity of agents; hysteresis systems; methodological issues; and long memory processes and fractals.

Mandelbrot and van Ness (1968) suggested fractional Brownian motion as a parsimonious model for the dynamics of ?nancial price data, which allows for dependence between returns over time. Starting with Rogers(1997) there is an ongoing dispute on the proper usage of fractional Brownian motion in option pricing theory.

Managing uncertainty in new product development projects for improved valuation and decision making is one of the most complex and challenging problems in operations management.

Dr. Volker Clausen, a great sup- visor, who has always encouraged my work. It has been a pleasure to work under his excellent guidance. His steady engagement and support have provided me the kind of working environment that has proved to be instrumental in writing this thesis.

Production planning problems containing special characteristics from process industries are addressed in this book. The main subject is the development of mathematical programming models that allow to model production plans which are not disrupted by discretization of time.

This book has been prepared during my work as a research assistant at the Institute for Statistics and Econometrics of the Economics Department at the University of Bielefeld, Germany.

A treatment of structural credit risk models for simultaneous and consistent pricing of corporate securities. This book takes us from the economic principles of firm value models to the empirical implementation, through the development of an economic framework. It provides exposition of corporate securities pricing for academics and practitioners.

In this book, the authors investigate structural aspects of no arbitrage pricing of contingent claims and applications of the general pricing theory in the context of incomplete markets. Firstly, the general theory discussed before is applied to the pricing of power options in a stochastic volatility model.

This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes.

This book focuses on economic bargaining theory. Economic bargaining theory explores the relationship between bargaining situ ations and the outcomes of the bargaining. Predictions for bargaining outcomes are developed by modeling the bargaining situation as a strategic game and using game theoretic equilibrium concepts in order to solve the game.

1. 1 we reveal the c- rent situation in hospitals that is faced by the management. 1 General Economic Situation in Hospitals The mounting pressure in the health care industry to reduce costs is forcing hos- tals and related facilities to take a closer look at their staf?ng policies (see [111]).

In addition to providing a survey on basic game-theoretic tools in the analysis of political decisions, the author looks at specific issues such as two-tiered voting systems or the influence of lobbyists on legislative committees, and shows how the models can be applied to real-world contexts such as the EU decision-making institutions.