Bøger i World economic and financial surveys serien

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008-09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

This report emphasizes the environmental, fiscal, economic, and administrative case for using carbon taxes, or similar pricing schemes such as emission trading systems, to implement climate mitigation strategies. It provides a quantitative framework for understanding their effects and trade-offs with other instruments and applies it to the largest advanced and emerging economies. Alternative approaches, like "feebates" to impose fees on high polluters and give rebates to cleaner energy users, can play an important role when higher energy prices are difficult politically. At the international level, the report calls for a carbon price floor arrangement among large emitters, designed flexibly to accommodate equity considerations and constraints on national policies. The report estimates the consequences of carbon pricing and redistribution of its revenues for inequality across households. Strategies for enhancing the political acceptability of carbon pricing are discussed, along with supporting measures to promote clean technology investments.

Shows that global current account balances stand at about 3 percent of global GDP. Of this, about 35-45 percent are now deemed excessive. Meanwhile, net credit and debtor positions are at historical peaks and about four times larger than in the early 1990s.

Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020. A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lacklustre policy response in many countries. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.

Prepared by the Policy Wing of the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, this title analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of the 44 countries covered by the Department.

Several events have demonstrated the fragility of the global financial system and raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the response by private and public sector institutions. This report assesses the vulnerabilities that the system is facing and offers tentative conclusions and policy lessons.

Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level, but its pace is less vigorous than projected in April and it has become less balanced. Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded. Global growth is projected at 3.7% for 2018-19.

Provides an assessment of the global financial system and markets, and addresses emerging market financing in a global context. This report focuses on current market conditions, highlighting systemic issues that could pose a risk to financial stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers.

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries.

The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting domestic policy adjustments and a supportive external environment, including continued steady growth in the global economy, higher commodity prices, and accommodative external financing conditions. Inflation is abating; and fiscal imbalances are being contained in many countries. Over the medium term, and on current policies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 percent, too low to create the number of jobs needed to absorb anticipated new entrants into labor markets.

Amid escalating trade tensions, tighter financial conditions, and volatile commodity markets, economic recovery in Latin America and the Caribbean has both moderated and become more uneven.

Discusses fiscal policies to prepare for the next downturn and foster long-term inclusive growth by adapting to changing demographics, advancing technology, and deepening global integration. The report also covers recent fiscal developments and the fiscal outlook in advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income developing countries.

After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies.

The April 2019 GFSR finds that despite significant variability over the past two quarters, financial conditions remain accommodative. As a result, financial vulnerabilities have continued to build in the sovereign, corporate, and nonbank financial sectors in several systemically important countries, leading to elevated medium-term risks.

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world's largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018. These are large upward revisions--0.5 and 0.2 percentage point for 2017 and 2018, respectively--relative to the April World Economic Outlook. The European recovery is spilling over to the rest of the world, contributing significantly to global growth. In a few advanced and many emerging economies, unemployment rates have returned to precrisis levels. Most emerging market European economies are now seeing robust wage growth. In many parts of Europe, however, wage growth is sluggish despite falling unemployment.

Finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous Global Financial Stability Report. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies.

Describes the world economic outlook as of April 2018, projecting that advanced economies will continue to expand above their potential growth rates before decelerating, while growth in emerging markets in developing economies will rise before levelling off.

The April 2018 edition of Fiscal Monitor is focused on two broad themes: the burden of high global debt and the opportunities and challenges of digital government.

While some inequality is inevitable in a market-based economic system, excessive inequality can erode social cohesion, lead to political polarization, and ultimately lower economic growth. This Fiscal Monitor discusses how fiscal policies can help achieve redistributive objectives.

Demonstrates that the global upswing in economic activity is strengthening, and that global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2018. The growth forecast for 2018 is 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with projections earlier this year.

Finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades' rise in household debt.