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This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends - it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality.
A central bank's forecast must contain some assumption about the future path for its own policy-determined short-term interest rate. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three main alternatives: i. Constant from the latest level ii. As implicitly predicted from the yield curve iii. Chosen by the monetary policy committee (MPC) Most countries initially chose alternative (i). With many central banks having planned to raise interest rates at a measured pace in the years 2004-06, there was a shift to (ii). However, Norway, and now Sweden, has followed New Zealand in adopting (iii), and the United Kingdom has also considered this move. So this is a lively issue.
The Evolution of Central Banks employs a wide range of historical evidence and reassesses current monetary analysis to argue that the development of non-profit-maximizing and noncompetitive central banks to supervise and regulate the commercial banking system fulfils a necessary and natural function.
Published in association with the Bank of England, this volume presents an important restatement of the purposes and objectives of financial regulation.
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