Bøger af Gregory Aftandilian

The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world's attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt's authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible. Prior to the events of January 25, 2011, most of the attention on Egypt was focused on the presidential succession issue, given that President Mubarak had achieved an advanced age, had several medical operations that put his health in doubt, and had steadfastly refused to appoint a vice president. There was also widespread speculation that he was grooming his son, Gamal Mubarak, to succeed him despite rumors that the Egyptian military establishment had strong doubts about Gamal's qualifications, in part because he had not done military service. Although the developments of January and February 2011 seemed to have overtaken events as they were known in 2010, the issue of presidential succession remains both highly relevant and timely. Whatever type of successor government comes to power in Egypt, it is likely that, given Egyptian history, the post-Mubarak president will have strong powers (though probably not to the extent of President Mubarak), to include remaining the head of the Egyptian military establishment.

This monograph analyzes the potential for Egypt to resume an Arab leadership role that has been in abeyance for several years because of its turbulent domestic scene. The monograph also assesses whether or not such a role would be beneficial for U.S. policy. Although there has been a change in U.S. leadership since then, the situation in Egypt has remained the same. The monograph first explores why Egypt has long pursued a leadership role in its modern history and the benefits-political, economic, and strategic-that have accrued from it. Although, by the late era of the Hosni Mubarak presidency, Egypt was no longer playing such a role, and the subsequent years of the so-called Arab Spring and the turmoil that followed compelled Egypt to look inward, Egyptian officials have not given up hope that their country will once again take up the Arab leadership mantle.

Egypt has long been a leader of the Arab world or at least aspired to be one at various times in its modern history. This leadership quest stems from its position as the most populous Arab country centered in the heart of the region, its geography nestled between the Mediterranean and Red Seas with the vital Suez Canal connecting them, its closeness (literally and figuratively) to the Israeli-Palestinian scene, and its relative proximity to the Gulf region. Moreover, Egypt boasts longstanding intellectual centers (religious and secular), has an educated strata of respected professionals, as well as a highly competent diplomatic corps and military establishment.Since 2011, however, Egypt has generally focused inward as it had to cope with turbulent political and economic developments arising in large part because of the fallout from the Arab Spring. It is currently facing a number of challenges, such as a stubborn terrorism problem that is chiefly based in the Sinai region, and economic austerity measures.