Bøger af Rasul Ahtjamov

São apresentados os resultados das análises das alterações no número de emergências naturais e de origem humana. No contexto dos impactos das alterações climáticas, os riscos resultam da interação dinâmica entre os perigos relacionados com o clima e os sistemas criados pelo homem. A abordagem proposta para a avaliação da probabilidade considera o facto de as alterações climáticas aumentarem a probabilidade de acontecimentos adversos que já ocorreram na zona. São identificadas as fontes de incerteza decorrentes da contabilização das emissões ou remoções de gases com efeito de estufa. Ao mesmo tempo, são destacadas as causas de incerteza objetivamente determinadas. São propostas formas de formação de pessoal capaz de avaliar e gerir os factores de risco climático nos sistemas socioecológicos.

Les résultats des analyses de l'évolution du nombre de situations d'urgence d'origine naturelle et humaine sont présentés. Dans le contexte des impacts du changement climatique, les risques découlent de l'interaction dynamique entre les dangers liés au climat et les systèmes créés par l'homme. L'approche proposée pour l'évaluation de la probabilité tient compte du fait que le changement climatique augmente la probabilité d'événements négatifs qui se sont déjà produits dans la région. Les sources d'incertitude découlant de la prise en compte des émissions ou de l'élimination des gaz à effet de serre sont identifiées. Dans le même temps, les causes d'incertitude objectivement déterminées sont mises en évidence. Des méthodes de formation du personnel capable d'évaluer et de gérer les facteurs de risque climatique au sein des systèmes socio-écologiques sont proposées.

Vengono presentati i risultati delle analisi dei cambiamenti nel numero di emergenze naturali e antropiche. Nel contesto degli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici, i rischi derivano dall'interazione dinamica tra i pericoli legati al clima e i sistemi antropici. L'approccio proposto per la valutazione della probabilità considera il fatto che il cambiamento climatico aumenta la probabilità di eventi avversi che si sono già verificati nell'area. Vengono identificate le fonti di incertezza derivanti dalla contabilizzazione delle emissioni o degli assorbimenti di gas serra. Allo stesso tempo, vengono evidenziate le cause di incertezza oggettivamente determinate. Vengono proposte modalità di formazione del personale in grado di valutare e gestire i fattori di rischio climatico all'interno dei sistemi socio-ecologici.

The results of the analysis of changes in the number of natural and man-made emergencies are presented. In the context of climate change impacts, risks arise from the dynamic interaction between climate-related hazards and man-made systems. The proposed approach to probability assessment considers the fact that climate change increases the probability of adverse events that have already occurred in the area. Sources of uncertainty derived from accounting for greenhouse gas emissions or removals are identified. At the same time, objectively determined causes of uncertainty are highlighted. Ways of training personnel capable of assessing and managing climate risk factors within socio-ecological systems are proposed.

Es werden die Ergebnisse von Analysen der Veränderungen bei der Zahl der natürlichen und vom Menschen verursachten Notfälle vorgestellt. Im Zusammenhang mit den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels ergeben sich die Risiken aus der dynamischen Wechselwirkung zwischen klimabedingten Gefahren und vom Menschen geschaffenen Systemen. Der vorgeschlagene Ansatz zur Wahrscheinlichkeitsbewertung berücksichtigt die Tatsache, dass der Klimawandel die Wahrscheinlichkeit von nachteiligen Ereignissen, die in dem Gebiet bereits eingetreten sind, erhöht. Quellen der Unsicherheit, die sich aus der Berücksichtigung von Treibhausgasemissionen oder -abbau ergeben, werden identifiziert. Gleichzeitig werden objektiv ermittelte Ursachen der Unsicherheit hervorgehoben. Es werden Wege für die Ausbildung von Personal vorgeschlagen, das in der Lage ist, Klimarisikofaktoren in sozio-ökologischen Systemen zu bewerten und zu managen.

The results of the analysis of the consequences of climate change are presented. It is shown that climate change is accompanied by an increase in the probability of dangerous natural processes, as well as the severity of the consequences of these emergencies. Based on the highlighted evidence of climate change, an analysis of the consequences of climate change for climate risk management in the railroad transport is carried out. Approaches to the adaptation of transport infrastructure to climate change have been formulated.

The results of the analysis of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as priority greenhouse gases, taking into account geospatial and sectoral characteristics are presented. It is shown that climate change is accompanied by increased probability of natural emergencies and man-made disasters, as well as by severe consequences of these emergencies.Based on the identified evidence of climate change and related consequences, the ways to mitigate climate change and approaches to adaptation to climate change have been formulated.