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Prior to September 11, 2001, most Americans viewed globalization as primarily -perhaps exclusively-an economic phenomenon.1 The economic evidence -rapidly shifting flows of world capital, expansion of overseas markets and investments, the global connections of e-commerce and the Internet, as examples -seemed readily apparent, even if some critics viewed globalization itself as an illdefined term. But appropriately defined or not, the concept of globalization had already achieved considerable stature, causing corporate boards and shareholders to thirst after presumably growing international markets, Internet junkies to claim their own transnational community, and antiglobalization protestors to smash municipal trash cans from Seattle to Washington.
There was a legend in ancient Rome about a fabulous set of a nine books which contained a predestined history of the Roman people and in particular details of all future was and crises which would beset them.
"Futures of war is a continuation of a study initiated in 1999 whose results were published as All possible wars?: toward a consensus view of the future security environment, 2001-2025 by National Defense University Press and subsequently re-released by other publishers. Although Futures of war borrows explanatory sections and structures from the earlier publication, it is largely a reinvestigation and rewrite rather than a revision. Whereas All possible wars? was a federally funded effort now in the public domain, Futures of war represents a personal quest"--P. 9.
This survey is a product of the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001 Working Group, a project of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Sponsored by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the working group is an independent, honest-broker effort intended to build intellectual capital for the upcoming QDR. More specifically, it aims to frame issues, develop options, and provide insights for the Chairman, the services, and the next administration in three areas: defense strategy, criteria for sizing conventional forces, and force structure for 2005--2010. One of the group's initial tasks was to assess the future security environment to the year 2025. This was pursued by surveying the available literature to identify areas of consensus and debate. The goal was to conduct an assessment that would be far more comprehensive than any single research project or group effort could possibly produce. This survey documents major areas of agreement and disagreement across a range of studies completed since the last QDR in 1997. Because it distills a variety of sources and organizes and compares divergent views, this volume makes a unique contribution to the literature. It also provides a particularly strong set of insights and assumptions on which both strategists and force planners can draw in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. Michele A. Flournoy Project Director
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