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Can the United States find ways to cooperate with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific, either to temper geopolitical rivalry or as a strategy to use cooperation with one of the two countries as an advantage against the other? Using official U.S., Chinese, and Russian policy documents, leadership statements, and other sources, the authors of this report assess the prospects for great power cooperation on seven issues: securing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ensuring the defense of key allies and partners, expanding cooperation with new partners in Southeast Asia, ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait, achieving the denuclearization of North Korea, countering terrorism, and deepening U.S. geostrategic ties with India. The authors find that, because of the divergence in the three countries' strategic views and policy goals, there is little room for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific. This implies that cooperation in order to tamp down competitive pressures or to drive wedges between Beijing and Moscow is an unpromising approach to managing ties or competition with these great powers. Instead, the United States will be better off focusing on preparations for long-term competition than striving to turn Beijing and Moscow against each other. This research was completed in September 2020, before the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and before the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. It has not been subsequently revised.

To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia even in this era of strategic competition? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored this question.

"Researchers identified approaches the U.S. Coast Guard could take to improve crew satisfaction with precommissioning assignments on offshore patrol cutters and overall fleet readiness. They evaluated the options using five criteria: crew satisfaction, crew preparation and knowledge retention, timeliness, feasibility, and cost"--

This report, now in its third edition, synthesizes the available scientific evidence for the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes.

The U.S. Air Force is exploring adaptive basing (AB) concepts to reduce the vulnerability of U.S. forces to growing air and missile threats and to preserve critical combat capabilities in highly contested environments. These concepts are likely to stress the U.S. Air Force's global mobility capabilities. AB concepts call for force packages to operate in mobile and responsive ways to preserve critical combat capabilities and fight from positions of advantage. Although these concepts place additional and different demands on the U.S. Air Force's global mobility capabilities, their effect on the Mobility Air Forces had not been fully analyzed. These appendixes provide in-depth discussion of the concepts, a detailed examination of the different types of power (hard, soft, and sharp) an adversary could exert on potential allies to limit U.S. base access, and historical case studies from World War II.

The U.S. Air Force is exploring adaptive basing (AB) concepts to reduce the vulnerability of U.S. forces to growing air and missile threats and to preserve critical combat capabilities in highly contested environments. These concepts are likely to stress the U.S. Air Force's global mobility capabilities. AB concepts call for force packages to operate in mobile and responsive ways to provide protection and fight from positions of advantage. Although these concepts place additional and different demands on the U.S. Air Force's global mobility capabilities, their effect on the Mobility Air Forces (MAF) had not been fully analyzed. In this report, the authors assess the impact of AB concepts on the MAF and recommend how to enable the MAF to better support operations in contested environments. The analysis considers the impact of several AB concepts on the demand for tankers, airlift, and base enablers in the Pacific area of responsibility and examines the sufficiency of current MAF forces to support AB concepts. Potential enhancements are then considered. In general, the authors find that the current MAF (tankers, airlift, and base enablers) could support a few fighter wings (two or three) operating using an AB scheme of maneuver. Significant changes must be made to support larger force packages. Potential enhancements include culture; tactics, techniques, and procedures; equipment; and new technologies.

The U.S. Air Force's electronic warfare integrated reprogramming (EWIR) enterprise examines intelligence on adversary threats that emit in the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) (in particular, radars and jammers) and configures electronic warfare software and hardware to enable aircraft or other resources to react to and/or respond to adverse changes in the EMS environment. With the growing advancements in U.S. adversaries' electronic warfare assets that enable complex and diverse EMS capabilities, identifying, tracking, and responding to these threats requires much faster updates than the existing EWIR enterprise was designed for. The research team conducted four interrelated technology case studies that together comprise the fundamental elements necessary for creating a near-real-time, autonomous, inflight software reprogramming capability and, more specifically, artificial intelligence-enabled cognitive electronic warfare capabilities-the use of machine learning algorithms that enable platforms to learn, reprogram, adapt, and effectively counter threats in flight. The research team also highlighted important continuing roles for the existing EWIR enterprise even as the U.S. Air Force moves toward a cognitive future.

Since 2000, spending on military personnel (MILPERS) has grown at an average annual rate of 3.3 percent to approximately $36 billion in 2021. This outpaced growth in prices in the overall economy, which averaged 1.9 percent per year for the same period. To ensure a ready workforce without undercutting modernization efforts, the U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) must explore options to maximize MILPERS affordability. At the same time, it must consider the nonmonetary trade-offs and risks that these options entail. A new analytic framework allows users to view savings, trade-offs, and risks of different solution options alongside one another.

The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2020 directed the Secretary of Defense to report on food insecurity among members of the armed forces and their dependents. The directive includes the following elements: an assessment of the current extent of food insecurity among not only service members and their dependents but also those living on post and presumably not receiving the basic allowance for housing (BAH); participation in food assistance programs; barriers to accessing this assistance; a description of other sources of income to meet basic needs; an assessment of the feasibility and advisability of a basic needs allowance (BNA) for low-income members; and three sets of recommendations (for policies, programs, and activities) to address food insecurity among military families. RAND researchers examined these elements and developed answers, along with listing areas requiring additional analysis.

This report summarizes a review of clinical practices and TRICARE requirements for intensive outpatient programs to treat active-duty members affected by the mental health consequences of sexual harassment and sexual assault while in the military.

The Department of the Air Force (DAF) promulgates directives, memorandums of instructions, and other guidance embracing the importance of diversity. Indeed, DAF Senior Leadership is on record stating that diversity is a mission imperative. Yet, demographic data have been masked for most boards making decisions about career development and promotions. The DAF wanted to assess the efficacy of making demographic data visible to board members. The 2021 Central Professional Military Education Program (CPME) Boards provided an opportunity to test the effects of unmasking the data to board members. In addition, the DAF implemented two other diversity and inclusion-related changes for the 2021 CPME board: (1) board members underwent unconscious bias training, and (2) instructions to board members concerning consideration of race, ethnicity, and gender were modified. In this report, the authors present the results of analyses comparing the 2020 outcomes (before the changes in guidance) with the 2021 outcomes (after the changes). In conducting this research, the project team used a mixed-methods approach. Specifically, the team analyzed board inputs and selection outcomes for the 2020 CPME board (before the changes) and 2021 CPME board (after the changes) to assess the effects on the selection likelihood for minority versus nonminority members; conducted semistructured interviews with 2020 and 2021 board members to learn about their experiences and how they interpreted and applied the new instructions to illuminate the quantitative patterns in the data; and reviewed relevant literature to identify trends that might assist the DAF in implementing the proposed changes.

This report offers a framework for defining civic infrastructure and presents some measures that provide information to help monitor civic infrastructure across the United States, in individual states, in communities, and across diverse populations. The authors specifically define civic infrastructure as the places, policies, programs, and practices that undergird strong communities and foster civic engagement. The framework categorizes these places, policies, programs, and practices in terms of three inputs: (1) democratic governance, (2) civic education, and (3) civic spaces. The authors also consider how these inputs are related to a set of intertwined outputs: (1) civic literacy, (2) civic identity, and (3) civic engagement. They then identify a set of existing measures across a range of data sources that provide information about the status of these inputs and outputs in the United States. This research has some implications for research, policy, and practice. First, more research is needed to test and confirm the definition, framework, and measures in this report. Second, federal and state policies could increase collection and availability of measures. Lastly, this research suggests considerable variation across states and communities in regard to rights and access to many aspects of civic infrastructure framework-from democratic governance, civic education, and civic spaces to the outputs of civic literacy, identity, and engagement. For that reason, this work implies the urgent need for more efforts to measure equitable access to and participation in aspects of civic infrastructure, both to monitor the health of democracy and to determine ways of improving it.

The expansion of Chinese military activity and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region has led the United States to undertake its own increase in activity in the region over the past decade. As the United States expands its military activities to safeguard its regional interests, the potential reactions of China are a crucial consideration. This report provides U.S. military planners and policymakers with guidance regarding how the characteristics of different potential U.S. military activities may affect Chinese perceptions and reactions, either in ways that the United States may prefer, such as by enhancing deterrence of People's Republic of China (PRC) aggression against U.S. allies and partners, or in ways that the United States may wish to avoid, such as by increasing the risk of aggression and escalation. The authors developed a framework for assessing likely Chinese reactions to U.S. military activities. The framework identifies the key factors that drive Chinese thinking and reactions, assesses how the characteristics of U.S. activities-their location, the U.S. allies or partners involved, their military capabilities, and the public profile or messaging that accompanies them-have the potential to affect Chinese reactions through each key factor, and provides a typology of potential Chinese reactions organized by their level of intensity. The authors also developed a comprehensive set of potential military activities that the United States could undertake in the Indo-Pacific and evaluated the implications of the framework, highlighting how the PRC would likely perceive and react to different types of activities.

HSOAC, HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER

This report presents an analysis of the implications of flexible spending accounts for active-duty service members and their families that would allow pre-tax payment of dependent care expenses, insurance premiums, and out-of-pocket medical expenses.

"This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China"--

Russia has defined its national interests in terms of resisting the U.S.-backed European integration system, challenging or supplanting U.S. influence around the globe, and pursuing an "independent foreign policy" that could bring it into conflict with China at some point in the future. Under the conditions present at the time of this writing, a great power war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the most likely large-scale scenario for which the Russian military must prepare. How is it preparing? What is its strategy? The authors of this report identify and examine key factors to assess the orientation of Russia's military strategy. The factors the authors consider are the overall balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, Russian views on the character of future war, and key trends in force readiness and mobilization. The authors also explore existing operational concepts to understand how Russia might execute that military strategy.

This report assesses the cost-effectiveness of a U.S. Coast Guard rule that requires any facility handling certain dangerous cargoes to biometrically verify the identity of anyone accessing a secure area of that facility.

The acquisition process for a new weapon system involves developing a set of technical requirements-a set of statements or models defining what a system should do and how well it should do it-for the system's design to ensure that the system provides the needed operational capability within budget and schedule constraints. However, oversights during this process can result in cost or schedule overruns, unsuitable operational performance, or outright cancellation. The U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to develop an approach to help improve DAF's technical requirements development process. To do so, the authors consulted policies and the literature, held discussions with DAF stakeholders and subject-matter experts, conducted two case studies, and assessed various tools that might assist development of technical requirements. This report describes the resulting approach, which has been informed by systems-based methods and tools, and includes an exploration of the applicability and feasibility of one specific emerging hazard-analysis tool: system-theoretic process analysis (STPA).

Dog Tag Inc. is a nonprofit organization that seeks to help veterans, their spouses, and those who serve as their caregivers reintegrate into civilian life. The organization runs the Dog Tag Inc. Fellowship Program, a five-month entrepreneurial fellowship program designed to enhance reintegration into civilian entrepreneurial and employment opportunities. This report describes research to help Dog Tag Inc. better understand how its fellowship program shapes the careers and life trajectories of its alumni. The authors first conducted focus groups and interviews with program alumni to better understand their experience with the fellowship. Using this information, as well as existing quantitative data on Dog Tag Inc. alumni outcomes, the authors worked with Dog Tag Inc. to revise the organization's existing alumni survey to more adequately and meaningfully capture the longitudinal impacts of the Dog Tag Inc. Fellowship Program at scale. They then fielded two waves of the revised survey in 2020 and 2021, the results of which are presented here and complemented by qualitative data. In addition to providing valuable information to Dog Tag Inc. as the organization continues to expand and refine its programming, these findings are likely to be of interest to other organizations serving veterans, spouses, and caregivers.

"RAND researchers reviewed a variety of Chinese and Russian primary sources, such as government publications, military journals, academic reports, and domestic media, to assess how Chinese and Russian internal perceptions of and reactions to U.S. military space-related activities and policies have evolved over time. This report presents the results of their analysis"--

Moscow regularly uses limited military actions-far short of direct aggression but often creating escalatory risks-that have caused concern and consternation in Western capitals. It is, however, far from clear what Russia intends to signal through these actions. Different understandings of Moscow's objectives could lead to dramatically divergent interpretations of events. In the first comprehensive analysis of Russian coercive signaling toward the United States and its allies, the authors of this report analyze these activities over recent years to provide a better understanding of the drivers of Moscow's behavior and practical guidelines for assessing future events. The authors posit several hypotheses regarding Russian motives and evaluated them using three methods: an examination of Russian strategic writing and leadership statements on the topic, a quantitative modeling effort, and qualitative case studies of specific incidents. The authors found solid empirical grounds to make judgments about Russia's motives. They suggest that much of the assertive, dangerous, or unsafe Russian activity appears to be directed at shaping specific patterns of ongoing U.S. or allied behavior. Moscow appears to be using coercive signals to send targeted messages regarding activities that it finds problematic. Most Russian proactive activities, such as scheduled exercises or strategic bomber training flights, convey general deterrence signals and do not pose immediate safety concerns. Using their analysis of past Russian behavior, the authors provide tools to discern the possible motives behind future activities. The research for this report was conducted in calendar year 2020. The draft was completed in March 2021.

In this volume, the authors of several translated articles, which were published between 2002 and 2020, provide insight into the evolution of military-scientific thinking in both Russia and Ukraine on the concept of information confrontation. The authors detail the impact of the rapid development of information technologies and information weapons over the past two decades on the military-scientific literature of Russia and Ukraine. The articles in this volume provide insight into the varying definitions and subtypes of information confrontation, its historical evolution and application, the technical tools used in the conduct of information confrontation, and the relationship between the connected yet distinct concepts of information confrontation and information warfare.

Researchers assessed quantum computing vulnerabilities in the 55 national critical functions (NCFs) for urgency, scope, cost per organization, other mitigating or exacerbating factors, and priority for assistance. This report documents the findings.

The future is highly uncertain-however, it is important for the Army to try to anticipate future global developments and technological changes. The objective of this forecasting work is to assist the U.S. Army in preparing for shifting operational environments, including environments it might not have faced extensively in the past, such as in extreme weather conditions driven by climate change. In these and other operating conditions, emerging technologies might help the Army succeed in key missions and promote U.S. interests. Forecasting could also help the Army better understand and anticipate the types of conflicts it might face, along with the characteristics of key adversaries, and the operational-level challenges that could be in play. Preparing and planning for future contingencies are especially important in the context of scarce resources in an austere budget environment where the Army already today needs to make difficult decisions about how it dedicates its resources. This report presents the development and implementation of a technology road-mapping process to help the Army understand the implications of key emerging technologies that could be crucial to Army missions in the years 2035 to 2050. This work aims to assist the Army for shifting operational environments, such as operations in extreme weather conditions. Emerging technologies might help the Army succeed in key missions and promote U.S. interests.

This report presents the results of analyses intended to help the Army assess and strengthen its ability to attract high-quality applicants to its civilian workforce and to retain high-quality Army civilian employees.

The U.S. Marine Corps' Body Composition and Military Appearance Program (BCMAP) standards were not developed from populations that reflect the current makeup of the force and the fitness requirements that they are subject to. Research suggests that the implementation of these standards could drive marines to adopt unhealthy behaviors, primarily those associated with disordered eating, to meet the standards while disproportionately affecting communities of color and women more generally. Furthermore, these unhealthy behaviors can cause significant short- and long-term mental and physical health problems that could negatively affect individual marines during their service and long after. Although there is some limited research on body-composition standards and eating disorders in the services, there has been little assessment of how the negative effects of policy and the behaviors associated with it affect the mental and physical health of individual marines (particularly those from communities of color and women more generally), career retention, and overall military readiness. Service and U.S. Department of Defense leadership have made talent management and diversity of the force at different levels of leadership an institutional priority; understanding how the BCMAP affects the force will help meet these objectives. This report will help decisionmakers understand how the BCMAP and its associated policies drive individual behavior, particularly for women in general and communities of color. It will also inform talent-management efforts and discussions about relevant national security implications while providing recommendations and a general framework for policy change.