Analysis of Covariance of Fall Migrations of Bowhead Whales in Relation to Human Activities and Environmental Factors, Alaskan Beaufort Sea

This study develops an approach for exploratory analysis to investigate whether and how the distribution of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea during autumn is affected by human activities, while simultaneously investigating and allowing for the influences of natural environmental factors on bowhead distribution and sightability. This study is based on analysis of aerial survey, industrial activity, and environmental data from the 1996, 1997 and 1998 autumn migration seasons. It was designed as Phase I of a study initiated by the Minerals Management Service (MMS). Phase II, if it proceeds, would expand and apply the approach to incorporate data from additional years, and to address additional questions and hypotheses about influences of natural and anthropogenic factors. The results from Phase I concerning potential effects of various variables should be considered preliminary, given the exploratory nature of the analysis, the limited number of years considered, and the fact that the statistical models were not fully optimized given the preliminary nature of the work.